An assassination market is a prediction market where any party can place a bet (using anonymous electronic money, and pseudonymous remailers) on the date of death of a given individual, and collect a payoff if they “guess” the date accurately. This would incentivise assassination of individuals because the assassin, knowing when the action would take place, could profit by making an accurate bet on the time of the subject’s death. Because the payoff is for knowing the date rather than performing the action of the assassin, it is substantially more difficult to assign criminal liability for the assassination.
What if a site existed where there would be various pools for betting on when a given site’s Denial of Service attack would end. The rules would state that the betting pool site would attempt to retrieve a given site’s root page in its entirety. If it succeeded it would make 9 more attempts randomly dispersed over the next five-minute period. If all of those subsequent attempts succeeded the site would be considered “up”. If any of them failed, the test would begin again after a random delay of between 5 and 60 minutes.
To win the betting pool, Bob has to add to the pool and he has to guess when the DoS will end. The best way for him to make that guess is to extend the current DoS attack with his own and then end his on the moment of his prediction, hoping that any other ongoing attacks have also ceased. As more people participate in this flash DoS, the betting pool grows, bringing more interest to the “contest” and more people who will try their own DoS to win the pool.
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